Forum:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Isaac
09L.Isaac 96L.INVEST Backup Navy site says we've got a 96L out in the eastern Atlantic. The models are quite bullish with this one, and SHIPS makes it an 88 kt hurricane in 120 hours. --'Coredesat' talk! 06:52, 20 September 2006 (UTC) :And in the time it took for me to post that, it appeared on the main NRL site. --'Coredesat' talk! 06:53, 20 September 2006 (UTC) ::Cape Verde ain't dead yet! Still, I think it is at least 2-3 days from development. No quickies like Helene. One thing this season has done more than last year is given us more Cape Verde systems... CrazyC83 14:44, 20 September 2006 (UTC) :::Pretty low latitude; about 7°N right now. I agree, it'll be a few days. Looks healthy, though. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 19:41, 20 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Wow, 7°N? That's farther south than any of the other Cape Verde storms that we've had so far this year. That's not a good thing. bob rulz 22:16, 20 September 2006 (UTC) :::::I know, but this is a double-edged blade. The lack of Coriolis Effect will prevent it from curving northward for a while, but will also hinder development if my facts are correct. Oh, and I was wrong, the cluster of thunderstorms is near 7°, but the broad area of low pressure is closer to about 9 or 10, I think. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 23:22, 20 September 2006 (UTC) ::::::The less latitude it gains, the more likely it is to affect land further west. Just look at how Florence, Gordon & Helene gained latitude very quickly and curved away towards the northeast (just starting in Helene's case). It all depends on how strong the subtropical ridge will be to the north. Pobbie Rarr 00:44, 21 September 2006 (UTC) :::::::Gordon was not really a Cape Verde storm; it popped out of Florence's circulation. CrazyC83 01:01, 21 September 2006 (UTC) ::::::::True, but you get the drift. Gordon never really had a chance to move westward because it moved towards mid-latitude rather quickly. This wave (proto-Isaac) is currently forecast to follow Helene. It's like a production line of hurricanes. Pobbie Rarr 01:06, 21 September 2006 (UTC) :::::::::Just to debunk this myth right now: Gordon did NOT "pop out of" Florence. It existed as a tropical wave and associated convection (91L.INVEST, then shear and subsidence from florence disippated most of the convection. After Florence moved on, convection sprung anew, it was reclassified as 93L.INVEST, and became Gordon. :::::::::Storms don't just "pop out of" other storms. Not tropical cyclones anyway. Sorry to be so harsh CrazyC but this really annoys me. ARRGH :-P ::::::::: —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Runningonbrains (talk • ) 03:17, September 20, 2006 (UTC }) ::::::::::Looks aren't good, but it's so far south that you can't rule out a chance of Hurricane Issac Hayes. If this thing hits land everyone will either be proclaming "Shaft!" (read article I linked( or Issac's Storm (like 1900 Galveston). guitarhero777777 03:09, 22 September 2006 (UTC) TCFA issued. ~[[User:Pikachu9000|'Pikachu']][[User_talk:Pikachu9000|'9000']] 18:52, 23 September 2006 (UTC) :ISSAC aka TD9 YES! 1998's Mitchazenia (joking) 23:38, 23 September 2006 (UTC) ::Where? Pobbie Rarr 01:55, 24 September 2006 (UTC) :::Pikachu, what are you talking about? TCFAs are only issued by JTWC and they don't do the Atlantic. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' ::::TCFA indeed, Eric. "TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT". – Chacor 03:49, 24 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Also, the JTWC is not the only organization that issues TCFAs. The NRL (as well as the Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center, which is essentially NRL's Atlantic counterpart) also issues automated TCFAs when data from the NHC warrants it. --'Coredesat' talk! 03:51, 24 September 2006 (UTC) :::::Both JTWC and NRL are Navy organizations and make their own interpretations based on the data they get. NHC has not said a tropical depression is imminant. They've said a tropical depression is possible, but not imminant, which TCFAs signify. (TCFA=tropical cyclone formation forecast within the next 24 hours) NRL could be right, but it's not official. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 04:36, 24 September 2006 (UTC) ::::::From the TCFA: ::::::FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150NM OF ::::::EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 14.0N 42.0W TO 19.0N 46.0W WITHIN THE NEXT ::::::24 HOURS. ::::::TCFAs do not indicate that TC development is imminent, they indicate that it is possible. If TCFAs indicated imminent development, then all systems for which TCFAs are issued would develop. They don't. --'Coredesat' talk! 04:42, 24 September 2006 (UTC) It has suddenly disappeared now from NRL.Tropische Storm Sven 12:43, 24 September 2006 (UTC) :Back. – Chacor 12:53, 24 September 2006 (UTC) :: Why was that? Does that happen often?Tropische Storm Sven 13:11, 24 September 2006 (UTC) :The NHC doesn't seem to think much of it now. Jamie|C 08:57, 25 September 2006 (UTC) ::This is why TCFAs should never be considered a guarantee that a tropical cyclone will form. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 12:58, 25 September 2006 (UTC) :::No surprise. It is kinda late for Cape Verde. From here on in, it should be mostly the Caribbean and the far-out mid-Atlantic. CrazyC83 04:22, 26 September 2006 (UTC) ::::New Dvorak estimates are T1.5/1.5 though. -- WmE 19:08, 26 September 2006 (UTC) Another TCFA. --'Coredesat' talk! 02:13, 27 September 2006 (UTC) :It doesn't want to die! This blob really deserves to become Isaac... CrazyC83 15:36, 27 September 2006 (UTC) 09L.NONAME NRL has it as TD 9! -- WmE 18:25, 27 September 2006 (UTC) :Indeed it does. A wave which has actually made it against the odds. It's not going to do much however. Pobbie Rarr 18:28, 27 September 2006 (UTC) ::Issac!!! :> :> :> :> HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 18:29, 27 September 2006 (UTC) ::Please don't post false information. The system, at the very most, is a depression right now. It is not a tropical storm yet. Hurricanehink (talk) 20:01, 27 September 2006 (UTC) ::How's it false information if it is a talk page?HurricaneCraze32 aka Mitchazenia 20:16, 27 September 2006 (UTC) :::Well, being on a talk page doesnt change the fact that it's false now, does it? :-P Besides, aren't you a bit over-excited over a blob of clouds in the middle of the Atlantic? -User:Runningonbrains 20:19, 27 September 2006 (UTC) :::Exactly. This board is only for discussion for the season, not for wishcasting or games. I'll repeat what's been said in the past, the talk page is NOT a Forum. Hurricanehink (talk) 20:22, 27 September 2006 (UTC) :::There must be some sort of party out in the east Atlantic, because all three of the last storms have wanted to go there, and this one looks like it does too. Almost exactly the same path as Gordon and Helene...the Bermuda high must be pretty small this year. -Runningonbrains 18:45, 27 September 2006 (UTC) Tropical Depression Nine TD9 officially. – Chacor 20:37, 27 September 2006 (UTC) :Hooray, another fishspinner, but this one is not forecast to be as fun to watch. The forecast doesn't bring it above 50 knots. If that holds up, an amazing streak could come to an end: The last time an 'I' storm did not strengthen into a hurricane was 1989's Tropical Storm Iris, and it fell just short. That's a streak of 15 seasons! 1991-1994 and 1997 did not have an 'I' storm. Still, that's impressive. We could now be witnessing the end of the streak. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 20:49, 27 September 2006 (UTC) ::Wow... However, one thing to consider is the NHC has trouble for storms in this area and time with intensity on their first advisory. ::*They predicted Subtropical Depression 22 last year to reach 60 mph winds, but it quickly dissipated ::*They predicted Juan in 2003 to only peak at 55 mph, but it got to 105 mph ::*They predicted Josephine in 2002 to not even get past TD status, but it reached 60 mph. ::*They forecasted Karen in 2001 to continually weaken after forming, but it strengthened to reach 80 mph ::*They predicted Michael in 2000 to only reach winds of 45 mph, but it became a Category 2 hurricane. ::*TD 12 in 1999 was forecasted to reach 70 mph winds on its first advisory, but it dissipated within 72 hours. ::*They predicted Lisa in 1998 to weaken to TD status on its first advisory, but it slowly strengthened and ultimately became a hurricane. ::*On its first advisory, Karl in 1998 was forecasted to reach peak winds of 50 mph, but it became a Category 2 hurricane. ::So, you never know with the tropics, especially on the first advisory of when a storm formed. Hurricanehink (talk) 21:03, 27 September 2006 (UTC) :::Probably, considering the conditions are pretty hostile out there. But the blob has not given up! Stranger things have happened though. Note all of those cases mentioned were later-season storms. CrazyC83 21:03, 27 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Well, TD 9 is a later season storm. I included storms from about September 20 to early October and in the Central Atlantic. Hurricanehink (talk) 21:07, 27 September 2006 (UTC) :::::Yes, the Atlantic has done some unbelievable things. Just when you think you've seen it all, something even more amazing happens. However, this is an inauspicious start for TD9. It's like a sports team starting the season with a long losing streak. They could make the playoffs, but it's a very ominous start. Time will tell. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 23:32, 27 September 2006 (UTC) ::::::The pressure currently is 1011mb. Seems like a weak little storm. Maybe it will become Isaac. Reub2000 09:37, 28 September 2006 (UTC) Even more interesting, Juan, Michael and Karen followed almost the same path as the forecasted for TD 9. My predictions are: Hurricane Isaac Category 2 Hurricane Max wind speed: 85 mph Intensity: 975 mb It will landfall Newfoundland. They are somewhat crazy, but let's see what happens with this blob. juan andrés 23:32, 27 September 2006 (UTC) Wikipedia is not a prediction page. Please do not post wild speculation here. -Runningonbrains 04:45, 28 September 2006 (UTC) :If you don want to make predictions and not disrupt the flow of the talk page (which we are all guilty of doing before, so don't point fingers), on my userpage, I have a predictions subpage you can use. guitarhero777777 05:04, 28 September 2006 (UTC) ::Sorry Juan, I may have been a little quick to snap at you, but seeing exact predictions throws the meteorologist me into an unpredictable rage..ROOOAR (joking). This storm may well affect Newfoundland, but NHC says probably extratropical at that point. -Runningonbrains 15:25, 28 September 2006 (UTC) :I look forward to seeing what this storm does. It could be very interesting. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 00:26, 28 September 2006 (UTC) Tropical Storm Nine NRL has it at 35 kt. The 12Z model runs: NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR TROPICAL STORM NINE (AL092006) ON 20060928 1200 UTC – Chacor 14:15, 28 September 2006 (UTC) Tropical Storm Isaac NHC have upgraded it. It looks weak on IR though. – Chacor 14:39, 28 September 2006 (UTC) :Right, as they say in their advisory, it looks a little bit like a subtropical storm. -- WmE 14:46, 28 September 2006 (UTC) Is there something semi-permanent in the Atlantic/Gulf that is giving us all of these fish spinners? Nothing seems to be making it as far west as the Lesser Antilies. Everything seems to gain TS characteristics in the South or Southeast part of the North Atlantic Basin and get far enough north to lose the westward track while still *way* out to sea. The last 4 named Storms have been more of a European Problem than a North American one (other than the Canadian Maritimes). Is this a plot by Mother Nature to get the European Countries into RA IV (the group responsible for the Atlantic Hurricanes?) :) Naraht 16:00, 28 September 2006 (UTC) :::LOL, thats some conspricy theory you got there. But i dont know, we cant predict what mother nature does. Storm05 16:02, 28 September 2006 (UTC) ::::It just looks like the trough that normally sets up along the East coast has shifted eastwards of its climatological position for the past few weeks. Patterns tend to hold for up to 5 weeks, before they change. Thegreatdr 16:45, 28 September 2006 (UTC) Is it just me, or has the forecast track shifted more towards Canada like we all predicted it would do? (see above) [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 19:31, 28 September 2006 (UTC) :Newfoundland is currently within the 5-day warning cone, yes. It may go nowhere near land however. Pobbie Rarr 01:51, 29 September 2006 (UTC) Looks absolutely pitiful on the first post-eclipse satellite images this morning. Models keep it at 40 kt, though. --'Coredesat' talk! 07:19, 29 September 2006 (UTC) It's looking much better now. Models are up to 50 knots, and forecast it to peak at 66 knots. A hurricane is not out of the question. Hurricanehink (talk) 19:23, 29 September 2006 (UTC) :It definitely looks better now; is that an eye I see trying to form? bob rulz 19:29, 29 September 2006 (UTC) ::Same here. NRL has it at 50kt right now. Pobbie Rarr 19:46, 29 September 2006 (UTC) :::Maybe the I streak won't end. Everyone seems to be doing the every word is a link thing this year. Looking at those, most of the previous I storms have been bad ones too. Jamie|C 21:32, 29 September 2006 (UTC) ::It's starting to look like Hurricane Epsilon - like nothing on the infrared satellite imagery, but well-organized on the visible images. Good kitty 22:42, 29 September 2006 (UTC) :::It looks like this season is turning like the last ones, not as 2005, but as an active season. The Pacific looks pretty dead right now, so let's see what happens in October, because this isn't over. Remember 2001, that was one storm below this time of the year and turned out very active at the end of the season. Remember 2005, when October was the most active month of all. But again, we must not reach those conclusions. Since 2002 had no storms and 2004 had only one weak storm and a subtropical storm. Sincerely, the story isn't written yet and October is the most surprising month of all. juan andrés 00:14, 30 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Very true. Even November can be surprising. CrazyC83 00:52, 30 September 2006 (UTC) Well, 60kt now according to NRL, and that's definitely an eye. Looks like it'll probably be five hurricanes in a row now. The forecast cone has also shifted further west over Newfoundland. Pobbie Rarr 02:20, 30 September 2006 (UTC) :Hmm, Looks like Isaac doesn't want to Join the group. (why is that so fun?) [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 14:22, 30 September 2006 (UTC) Hurricane Isaac 65 knots. A hurricane. Amazing, given that it was very poor on IR to begin. – Chacor 14:48, 30 September 2006 (UTC) :Continuing the "Hurricane I..." trend. Last time the I name was not a hurricane was 1989! (season without an I name don't count.)[[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 14:55, 30 September 2006 (UTC) ::The streak is still alive! Unbelievable. 15 seasons, that's pretty amazing. 5 seasons without an 'I' name in between but the 1989 storm didn't miss the mark by much. What a streak! -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 17:17, 30 September 2006 (UTC) :::With Isaac's organized structure, I would say a category two is not out of the question. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 18:55, 30 September 2006 (UTC) ::::It is not in the greatest atmospheric conditions though, so I can only see slight strengthening. But stranger things have happened! CrazyC83 14:59, 1 October 2006 (UTC) Right now it is a very small storm. Nonetheless, if land effects are noted, an article should be made. CrazyC83 16:57, 2 October 2006 (UTC) Yeah, it's gone now, without going anywhere near Newfoundland. More incredible, the whole month of September has gone by without a storm going anywhere near land... when was the last time that happened? --Mark J 18:10, 3 October 2006 (UTC) :Actually, it brought tropical storm-force winds to much of Newfoundland as it was turning extratropical. You're right about September though - it has been extremely uneventful. Pobbie Rarr 19:27, 3 October 2006 (UTC)